Methodology

Technology Trends

Technologies and products tend to evolve along an S-curve pattern with a slow growth early stage, followed by rapid growth to maturity, and then transitioning to slow and ultimately declining growth in late stages. GEN3 deploys a tool called Trends of Engineering System Evolution (TESE) that considers how technologies evolve based on objective evolutionary trends that have been observed over time across a wide range of technologies and products.

Where is my technology today?

Understanding where a particular technology lies on this S-curve continuum can have important implications on technology strategy development and innovation investment. Our methodology includes strategic tools for understanding the positioning of products and technologies in order to answer questions like:

  • Where are we today on the S-curve?
  • What is the development potential under the current action principle? (In other words, what resource levels are available to be exploited through incremental innovation?)
  • When should we consider jumping to the next S-Curve in order to disrupt this market and secure future competitive advantage?

What might the future look like?

Even with a solid understanding of current positioning and competitive aspirations, it can still be a challenge to surface the breakthrough ideas that will enable future strategic advantage. To this end, GEN3's methodology includes tactical tools that derive from a framework of objective technology trends to help address questions like:

  • What innovations will drive movement along the S-curve (increasing product performance and maximizing profitability)?
  • What might the general trends imply about the evolution of our specific engineering system?
  • How can we anticipate technological advancement and exploit these evolutionary developments to our competitive advantage?
  • What are the technologies that could force a jump to the next S-curve? How might this jump make current solutions obsolete?

Trends of Engineering System Evolution can be a powerful vehicle for long-term technology forecasting, strategy development, and product innovation.

Read about our other core innovation processes and guiding principles.

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